2011年4月15日星期五

Offseason Outlook: Packers

From worst to first, the Fantasy Source looks at all 32 teams entering the offseason. We finish up our tour with the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.

WHO'S HOT

Aaron Rodgers, QB. Rodgers actually regressed slightly in the stats department last year, but his stock is higher than ever after winning Super Bowl MVP honors. And, really, despite throwing for fewer than 4,000 yards last season for the first time since becoming a starter, Rodgers is still arguably the best QB on the planet right now. His passing numbers are sick (at least 3,900 yards and 28 TDs each of the past three seasons), but he really enhances his fantasy value with his legs. Rodgers has rushed for 300 yards in each of the past two seasons, and he's added at least four rushing TDs each of the past three years. Concussions (he suffered two last year and missed a game) are really the only concern with Rodgers, but aside from that, he's as sure of a thing as there is in a fantasy draft. He has plenty of playmakers around him, and Green Bay's offense should be even more lethal next year if TE Jermichael Finley can stay on the field. Rodgers could go anywhere in the first round, but somewhere in the Nos. 8-12 range sounds about right.

Greg Jennings, WR. Fantasy owners love to complain about Jennings' consistency (or lack thereof), but he reminded everyone why he's an elite talent last year. He had the second best season of his career in terms of receptions (76) and yards (1,265), and he tied his career high with 12 TDs. Perhaps even more impressive is that he tied for fifth among WRs in our per-game Consistency Rankings through Week 16. Jennings had at least 7.8 fantasy points in all but three games last year, and he reached double-digits in eight contests. Finley's return could cost him a few TDs, but Jennings should continue to see more targets as Donald Driver declines. Jennings is a legit WR1, and he should probably be one of the first five or six WRs selected.

WHO'S NOT

Ryan Grant, RB. Yeah, we're reaching a little bit putting Grant on this list, but he went from being a solid, if unspectacular, late-first/early-second-round pick to likely being an afterthought on draft day next year. Grant tore his ACL in Week 1, and although he said he could've played in the playoffs, the Packers had placed him on I.R., making him ineligible. Rift Gold He should be healthy and ready for the start of next season, but postseason hero James Starks (315 rushing yards, one TD in four playoff games) will be battling him for carries, and newfound folk hero John Kuhn will likely be in the mix for goal-line touches. Grant's fantasy outlook isn't great, but the 28-year-old back still has talent. As long as he has a clean bill of health, he'll likely produce enough to be an every-week flex-back.

James Jones, WR. Owners have been clamoring for Jones to surpass veteran Donald Driver on the Packers' depth chart for a couple years now, and apparently Jones strongly agrees. RIFT Platinum The restricted free agent has repeatedly said he wants to be a starter, and he's ready to move on from the Packers if that's what it takes. Jones posts decent numbers for a No. 3 receiver (679 yards, five TDs last year), but his frequent drops are a problem, and he's done little to separate himself from Green Bay's other talented receivers (including Jordy Nelson). His value depends on his role, and if he's back with the Packers, Jones is nothing more than bench filler.

X-FACTOR

Jermichael Finley was everyone's must-have TE last year, and he showed why during the first four games of the season. He had two 100-yard efforts, plus another game with a TD catch. But Finley injured his knee in Week 4 and missed the rest of the season, leaving owners to wonder "what might have been ..." rift gold We know Finley is an elite talent, and as long as he can bounce back from the injury, he should be a big-time producer. He's really a glorified WR (think Dallas Clark), and Rodgers has shown in the past he loves throwing to him. Few TEs have as much upside as Finley, and it will be interesting to see if owners still love him like they did before last season.RIFT Platinum My guess is they will, and he'll once again be among the top five TEs selected.

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